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Exxon warns oil inventories will hit dangerously low levels in weeks, forcing prices to shoot higher. […]

Brutal El Nino, drought, war threatens food supply

We infer that 2026 is likely to be the warmest year in the period of instrumental data, based on a physics-based approach with identifiable assumptions. This approach may help us learn something in 2026 about the mechanisms of climate change. The figures in this post and our other current papers will be continually updated on our website,2 when they remain relevant. We are also now on Substack3.

Même sans grande marche pour le climat, même en période d’instabilité politique et militaire, le Belge garde une attention particulière aux problèmes climatiques. C’est ce qui ressort de la vaste enquête menée par le SPF Santé publique, enquête menée tous les quatre ans depuis 2005. Les gestes quotidiens d’économie d’énergie ou de tri des déchets sont rentrés dans les mœurs, mais les citoyens estiment que les autorités belges et européennes doivent maintenir ou accélérer la transition climatique. C’est un peu moins le cas quand on s’attaque à leur portefeuille.

De uitstap uit fossiele brandstoffen vergt meer dan technische klimaatmaatregelen. Op een conferentie in Colombia staat de vraag centraal of staten bereid zijn de macht van multinationals in te perken en de energietransitie te verankeren in mensenrechten.

Around 153 BCE, Cato the Elder, one of Rome’s most prominent senators, began ending every single one of his speeches with the same words: “Carthago delenda est”, or “Carthage must be destroyed”.

À l’occasion de la journée de la terre, l’Agence Média Palestine s’est entretenue avec William Mina, médiateur et animateur de collectifs auprès d’acteurs de l’économie sociale et solidaire, aussi impliqué dans des mouvements d’écologie politique et de solidarité avec la Palestine et le Liban.

We can’t know how long the war in the Middle East will last. Nor can we know who will “win” it, and in which terms. What we know is that the destruction already wreaked on things and people is immense, and it keeps escalating. The longer the war, the bleaker their perspectives in a region already plagued by all sorts of problems, including drought, soil degradation, ecosystem damage, scarce agricultural resources, declining fertility rates, and more.

Climate change is causing measurable harm globally1,2. Political and legal efforts seek to link these damages with specific emissions, including in discussions of loss and damage (L&D)3,4; however, no quantitative definition of L&D exists5,6, nor is there a framework to link past and future emissions from specific sources to monetized, location-specific damages. Here we develop such a framework, which is integrated with recent efforts to estimate the social cost of carbon7. Using empirical estimates of the non-linear relationship between temperature and aggregate economic output, we show that future damages from past emissions—one component of L&D—are at least an order of magnitude larger than historical damages from the same emissions. For instance, one tonne of CO2 emitted in 1990 caused US$180 in discounted global damages by 2020 ($40–530) and will cause an additional $1,840 through 2100 ($500–5,700). Thus, settling debts for past damages will not settle debts for past emissions. In other illustrative esti

Drie dagen lang was er in Brussel een grote wapenbeurs waar bezoekers volgens de organisatie zelf “een inspirerende uitstap” konden ervaren. Stop Militarisering organiseerde in hetzelfde weekend een conferentie om te wijzen op de destructieve wapenwedloop waar België zich in mengt. DeWereldMorgen was erbij.

Paul R. Ehrlich will be remembered as a scientist whose books about population and threats to the environment shaped the idea of limited growth in the modern era.

El Niño could fuel extreme weather and raise temperatures to record highs this year, but how sure can we be that it will return?

The world seems headed into another El Nino, just 3 years after the last one. Such quick return normally would imply, at most, an El Nino of moderate strength, but we suggest that even a moderately strong El Nino may yield record global temperature already in 2026 and still greater temperature in 2027. The extreme warming will be a result mainly of high climate sensitivity and a recent increase of the net global climate forcing, not the result of an exceptional El Nino, per se. We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.

Na drie weken van keiharde repressie tellen de Iraanse demonstranten hun doden. Het exacte aantal is moeilijk na te gaan, maar getuigenissen en beelden van overvolle mortuaria, massagraven en doelgerichte moorden suggereren een duizelingwekkende dodentol. MO* sprak met mensen in Iran en in de diaspora om de ware omvang van de staatsterreur van de ayatollahs in kaart te brengen.

Exclusive: Ben Goldsmith will work on issues including fishing and green belt preservation to attract green Tories

New year, new acronym! The newly established Intergovernmental Science-Policy Panel on Chemicals, Waste and Pollution (ISP-CWP) will meet in its first Plenary session from February 2-6 in Geneva, Switzerland. The Panel is designed to provide scientific assessments on chemicals, waste, and pollution to inform policymakers at national, regional, and international levels.

Il y a quelques années, le gouvernement colombien avait tourné le dos à l’utilisation massive de l’herbicide pour détruire les cultures illégales des trafiquants de drogue. Depuis, il a changé d’avis : les épandages reprennent en ce mois de janvier, selon la volonté du président étasunien.

De eerste koude nachten zijn gevallen. In sommige straten worden dekens uitgedeeld aan mensen die nergens terechtkunnen, terwijl achter de ramen van regeringsgebouwen het licht nog brandt. Binnen wordt onderhandeld over cijfers, budgetten en opvangcapaciteit, maar zelden gaat het over de mensen zelf, vindt de Syrische Belg en opiniemaker Alaa Jbour.

Delegates made minimal headway on timetable for replacing oil and gas or on firm commitments to reducing carbon emissions

Watchdog’s flagship report says rise in low-carbon electricity will make transition ‘inevitable’, despite Trump’s calls to carry on drilling

Decision by international court of justice hailed as a gamechanger for climate justice and accountability

We already have plenty of evidence of what happens when things better left to governments — which in this case might decide to never flip the switch at all — are ceded to private industry.

The uniquely vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 5 meters. But when that will happen — and how fast — is anything but settled.

Unless global heating is reduced to 1.2C ‘as fast as possible’, warm water coral reefs will not remain ‘at any meaningful scale’, a report by 160 scientists from 23 countries warns

Four Prime Ministers in twelve months. Social protests in the streets. Extreme parties rising in the polls. President Macron, once seen as Europe's great reformer, seems politically finished. But what if France's paralysis is not an exception - what if it shows Europe's future?

Predictably, soon, most young people will reject extremist views. This will be none too soon because it is the essential step leading to global political leadership that appreciates the threat posed by climate’s delayed response to human-made changes of Earth’s atmosphere. Then the annual fraud of goals for future “net zero” emissions announced at United Nations COP (Conference of Parties) meetings might be replaced by realistic climate policies. It is important, by that time, that we have better knowledge of the degree and rate at which human-made forcing of the climate system must be decreased to avoid irreversible, unacceptable consequences.

The world will warm more than expected due to future changes in ozone, which protects the Earth from harmful sun rays but also traps heat as it is a greenhouse gas. While banning ozone-destroying gases such as CFCs has helped the ozone layer to recover, when combined with increased air pollution the impact of ozone could warm the planet 40% more than originally thought.

In an analysis of the best available Earth systems models, Northeastern researchers found that by the turn of the next century, 850 million people will feel the effects of declining runoff from the world's major rivers.

The Environmental Protection Agency said on Friday that it would eliminate its scientific research arm and begin firing hundreds of chemists, biologists, toxicologists and other scientists, after denying for months that it intended to do so. The move underscores how the Trump administration is forging ahead with efforts to slash the federal work force and dismantle federal agencies after the Supreme Court allowed these plans to proceed while legal challenges unfold. Government scientists have been particular targets of the administration’s large-scale layoffs.

Au moment où le continent fait face à des températures extrêmes, la Commission européenne a entrepris d’affaiblir plusieurs politiques écologiques majeures, sous la pression conjointe des Etats membres, de la droite et de l’extrême droite.

Forever chemicals have polluted the water supply of 60,000 people, threatening human health, wildlife and the wider ecosystem. But activists say this is just the tip of the Pfas iceberg

Een rechtvaardig grondstoffenbeleid is een voorwaarde voor duurzame vrede in Congo, weet Wies Willems die als expert natuurlijke rijkdommen werkt voor Broederlijk Delen. Ook de EU moet daarin haar verantwoordelijkheid opnemen, benadrukt hij.

Identifying the socio-economic drivers behind greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to design mitigation policies. Existing studies predominantly analyze short-term CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, neglecting long-term trends and other GHGs. We examine the drivers of all greenhouse gas emissions between 1820–2050 globally and regionally. The Industrial Revolution triggered sustained emission growth worldwide—initially through fossil fuel use in industrialized economies but also as a result of agricultural expansion and deforestation. Globally, technological innovation and energy mix changes prevented 31 (17–42) Gt CO2e emissions over two centuries. Yet these gains were dwarfed by 81 (64–97) Gt CO2e resulting from economic expansion, with regional drivers diverging sharply: population growth dominated in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, while rising affluence was the main driver of emissions elsewhere. Meeting climate targets now requires the carbon intensity of GDP to decline 3 times faster than the global

Back in 2018, Yale economist William Nordhaus won the Nobel Prize for his work on his Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model. The idea was to set up a picture of the global economy, add on some estimates of the economic costs of warming with a “damage function,” plus estimates of what climate policy would cost, and all adjusted with a discount term to account for how people value current production more than future production (according to economists, at least). That way you can calculate an “optimal” climate policy in the form of a carbon tax that would precisely compensate for warming damages without burdening the economy too much.

I am writing this message to the millions of people who have been involved in the climate movement over the past several years. This movement has been an incredible force, thanks to your courage, passion and commitment. It has created a new public consciousness and a powerful sense of popular will. These are major achievements. And yet it is clear that we have now reached an impasse and a new path is needed.

The Ocean is essential to life on Earth, regulates the climate, supports rich biodiversity, sustains livelihoods, and inspires cultures and societies. However, unregulated human impacts are putting the Ocean and its ability to contribute to humanity at risk. The Starfish Barometer is a new initiative launched on World Ocean Day (8 June 2025) to provide a concise, science-based annual overview of the multiple dimensions of the Ocean through the lens of its interdependence with humanity. Each year, the Starfish Barometer will present a carefully curated selection of Ocean-related developments, chosen for their global significance and grounded in the most up-to-date scientific evidence, intended for a broad non-specialist audience. Rather than offering an exhaustive review, it will spotlight key aspects, robust, evidence-based, and reflective of major developments of the year. The Starfish Barometer emphasizes the two-way relationship between humanity and the Ocean: we impact its future, and it shapes ours. Its

On 21 April 2019, I was on Waterloo Bridge in London with my younger siblings. Around us were planters full of flowers where there were once cars, and people singing. This was the spring iteration of Extinction Rebellion, when four bridges in London were held by protesters. My siblings, then 14, had been going out on school strike inspired by Greta Thunberg, and wanted to see her speak.

Children born in 2020 will face “unprecedented exposure” to extreme weather events even if warming is limited to 1.5C.

Young people will be exposed to a number of heatwaves that no one would have experienced in pre-industrial times. Young people will be exposed to a number of heatwaves that no one would have experienced in pre-industrial times.

Have you ever thought about what would happen if all life in the ocean disappeared? A recent study explores this extreme scenario to understand how ocean biology shapes the past, present, and future climate. The ocean plays a critical role in regulating Earth's climate. It is a massive carbon store that absorbs about 25% of human-caused emissions and thus helps maintain a relatively low CO2 level in the atmosphere. But what would happen if all marine life—from the tiniest plankton to the largest whales—disappeared? A recent study delves into this extreme scenario to uncover the crucial role that ocean biology plays in mitigating climate change.

Sarah Knapton Science Editor Sarah Knapton Related Topics Climate change, Sun, United Kingdom 22 April 2025 8:17pm BST Experiments to dim sunlight to fight global warming will be given the green light by the Government within weeks. Outdoor field trials which could include injecting aerosols into the atmosphere, or brightening clouds to reflect sunshine, are being considered by scientists as a way to prevent runaway climate change. Aria, the Government’s advanced research and invention funding agency, has set aside £50 million for projects, which will be announced in the coming weeks.

Sous l’impulsion du duo Donald Trump-Elon Musk, l’exécutif américain a annoncé de nombreux licenciements dans l’administration. Difficiles à suivre et à compter, ces coupes dans les effectifs révèlent les cibles prioritaires de la Maison Blanche.

Engagé de longue date dans le soutien aux parents d’enfants neuroatypiques, le président des Etats-Unis défend des positions archaïques sur l’autisme. Depuis vingt ans, sa vision est influencée par la fille d’un couple d’amis, passée de l’errance médicale à un combat antivax. C’est l’histoire d’une lubie trumpiste pas comme les autres. En mars, le nouveau ministre de la santé des Etats-Unis, le lobbyiste Robert F. Kennedy Jr, a confié aux Centres de contrôle des maladies (CDC), la principale agence de santé du pays, la mission d’étudier le lien fantasmatique entre autisme et vaccination.

Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and an international banking group have quietly concluded that climate change will likely exceed the Paris Agreement’s 2 degree goal.Top Wall Street institutions are preparing for a severe future of global warming that blows past the temperature limits agreed to by more than 190 nations a decade ago, industry documents show.

Researchers say Aardvark Weather uses thousands of times less computing power and is much faster than current systemsA single researcher with a desktop computer will be able to deliver accurate weather forecasts using a new AI weather prediction approach that is tens of times faster and uses thousands of times less computing power than conventional systems.

In november zal de COP30 plaatsvinden in Belém, Brazilië. Braziliaanse minister van Milieu- en Klimaatverandering Marina Silva wil dat er resultaten geboekt worden op de volgende COP. Het mag volgens haar niet uitdraaien op een feestelijk spektakel.

De Europese ‘omnibuswet’ draait de klok tien jaar terug en is een regelrechte aanval op noodzakelijke duurzaamheidsverplichtingen voor bedrijven, waarschuwt expert natuurlijke rijkdommen Wies Willems. ‘De lidstaten en het Europees Parlement mogen dit niet laten passeren.’

Climate change will fuel contests—and maybe wars—for land and resources.

Amid President Donald Trump’s attacks on government scientists and science funding, researchers are arranging rallies to “Stand Up for Science” in Washington, D.C., and nationwide on March 7

Le président américain a souvent exploité le conflit à des fins politiques. Mais il s’était toujours tenu à une position neutre, sans nier une « attaque » russe.

... An “acid” test of our interpretation will be provided by the 2025 global temperature: unlike the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Ninos, which were followed by global cooling of more than 0.3°C and 0.2°C, respectively, we expect global temperature in 2025 to remain near or above the 1.5°C level. Indeed, the 2025 might even set a new record despite the present weak La Nina. There are two independent reasons. First, the “new” climate forcing due to reduction of sulfate aerosols over the ocean remains in place, and, second, high climate sensitivity (~4.5°C for doubled CO2) implies that the warming from recently added forcings is still growing significantly.

An international group of scientists, led by King's College London, has revealed how continued global warming will lead to more parts of the planet becoming too hot for the human body over the coming decades. the amount of landmass on our planet that would be too hot for even healthy young humans (18 to 60-year-olds) to keep a safe core body temperature will approximately triple (to 6%)—an area almost the size of the US—if global warming reaches 2°C above the preindustrial average.

The directive follows President Trump's orders reversing climate policies.

C’est un mot en 9 lettres qui fend le ciel bleu que la météo hivernale (certes froide) nous offre depuis quelques jours : "exécrable". On ne parle évidemment pas de la lumière, carburant essentiel de nos réserves en vitamine D, mais de ce qui ne se voit pas au premier coup d’œil : la qualité de l’air. Or, elle est "exécrable" donc dans les principales villes du pays.

For those trying to pay attention in our post-truth, post fact-checking brave new world that has such misinformation systems in it, Dr. Rees is a source to consider. The link: Climate Change, Overshoot and the Demise of Large Cities: Why large cities will need to contract or be abandoned altogether

The abrupt loss of many species from a system is generally attributed to a breakdown in ecological functioning. As species are sequentially knocked out, the whole community becomes unstable, and it all comes crashing down. Another mechanism that may be at play. My colleagues and I argue that despite the fact life on Earth displays such great variety, many species that live together appear to share remarkably similar thermal limits. That is to say, individuals of different species can tolerate temperatures up to similar points.

Thirteen of the ports with the highest supertanker traffic will be seriously damaged by just 1 metre of sea level rise, the analysis found. The researchers said two low-lying ports in Saudi Arabia – Ras Tanura and Yanbu – were particularly vulnerable. Both are operated by Aramco, the Saudi state oil firm, and 98% of the country’s oil exports leave via these ports.

The year 2024 wasn’t just another chapter in the unfolding climate saga; it felt like the plot twist no one wanted to believe. For decades, climate scientists warned of ifs — if we pass this tipping…

Among the many things global warming will be melting this century—sea ice, land glaciers and tourist businesses in seaside towns across the world—is permafrost. Lying underneath 15% of the northern hemisphere, permafrost consists of accumulating dead biomass that remains frozen, never having had a chance to release all its carbon.

La guerre d’Israël dans la bande de Gaza bafoue un des droits fondamentaux : l'accès à l’eau. Cette « instrumentalisation de l’eau » a de lourdes conséquences sur les Gazaouis, déplore l’auteur de cette tribune.