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The process of relocating people from New Orleans should start immediately, as the city has reached a “point of no return” that will see it surrounded by the ocean within decades due to the climate crisis, a stark new study has concluded. Ongoing sea-level rise and the rampant erosion of wetlands in southern Louisiana will swallow up the New Orleans area within a few generations, with the new paper estimating the city “may well be surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico before the end of this century”.

Climate models show considerable discrepancies in their future projections around the Atlantic, mainly due to uncertainties in the fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Climate models suggest a reduction in AMOC strength of 32 ± 37% by 2100 (90% probability, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 scenario, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6). To refine this estimate and reduce its uncertainty, we use four different observational constraint methods. The best one, which provides the lowest leave-one-out error, integrates a large set of observable variables using ridge-regularized linear regression—a method unusual in climate science. It gives an estimate of the AMOC slowdown of 51 ± 8% (90% probability), i.e., a weakening ∼ 60% stronger than suggested by the multimodel mean. This refinement mainly results from correcting a bias in South Atlantic surface salinity, consistent with recent studies emphasizing its role in the proximity to an AMOC tipping point. This more substantial

Wildfires used to die down and even stop at night with cooler temperatures and increased humidity. But a study released Friday says climate change is making burning weather more around the clock in North America because night is becoming warmer and drier. Canadian fire scientists say potential burning hours for fires have increased 36% in the last 50 years. California now has about 550 more fire-friendly hours a year than it did in the 1970s. North American summer nights are warming faster than days, evening relief is evaporating for forests and that means the area of land burned is soaring.

The European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) earlier this year issued a forecast of a strong (“Super”) El Nino to begin later this year and peak in early 2027, as we have discussed in two earlier posts.3,4 El Ninos are important because of the large effects that they have on global weather, even though those effects are not always consistent from one El Nino to another. El Ninos have even greater effect in combination with ongoing global warming, e.g., Radfar et al.5 find that the combination of an El Nino with increasingly prevalent marine heat waves results in tropical cyclones consistently producing higher maximum wind speeds, storm surges, and precipitation rates, and Liu et al.6 describe evidence of El Ninos strengthened control over global climate anomalies in a warmer world

Climate change is causing measurable harm globally1,2. Political and legal efforts seek to link these damages with specific emissions, including in discussions of loss and damage (L&D)3,4; however, no quantitative definition of L&D exists5,6, nor is there a framework to link past and future emissions from specific sources to monetized, location-specific damages. Here we develop such a framework, which is integrated with recent efforts to estimate the social cost of carbon7. Using empirical estimates of the non-linear relationship between temperature and aggregate economic output, we show that future damages from past emissions—one component of L&D—are at least an order of magnitude larger than historical damages from the same emissions. For instance, one tonne of CO2 emitted in 1990 caused US$180 in discounted global damages by 2020 ($40–530) and will cause an additional $1,840 through 2100 ($500–5,700). Thus, settling debts for past damages will not settle debts for past emissions. In other illustrative esti

Most research on “forever chemicals” focuses on how best to remove them from the environment. But solutions to tricky problems often emerge from the most unexpected of places—as demonstrated by a new study that instead redirects the pollutants into becoming tools for extracting precious lithium. In a recent Nature Water study, a team led by Rice University researchers describes a novel way to use spent perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, to recover lithium from high-salinity brine pools. The team tapped into the fluorine content inside PFAS leftovers, using it to attract lithium from briny water. Remarkably, the team was able to collect lithium fluoride at 99% purity and confirmed that the sample was pure enough to boost the stability and performance of lithium-ion batteries.

Seven Ukrainians arrested and money-laundering investigation launched in latest spat between Kyiv and Budapest

What is currently happening in Brussels under the guise of regulatory simplification is being presented as something technical and logical. Less regulatory pressure, more competitiveness. A series of so-called omnibus bills are intended to streamline legislation. Reporting obligations are being limited and reassessments of raw materials postponed. It sounds like administrative efficiency. In Washington, things are moving even faster: Trump is dismantling the basis for climate laws while the world continues to warm up. The framing is the same: rules slow down businesses, and a slowed-down business community makes us poor. But that reasoning assumes something that is not true: that everyone wants the same thing from the market.

The world seems headed into another El Nino, just 3 years after the last one. Such quick return normally would imply, at most, an El Nino of moderate strength, but we suggest that even a moderately strong El Nino may yield record global temperature already in 2026 and still greater temperature in 2027. The extreme warming will be a result mainly of high climate sensitivity and a recent increase of the net global climate forcing, not the result of an exceptional El Nino, per se. We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.

The world seems headed into another El Nino, just 3 years after the last one. Such quick return normally would imply, at most, an El Nino of moderate strength, but we suggest that even a moderately strong El Nino may yield record global temperature already in 2026 and still greater temperature in 2027. The extreme warming will be a result mainly of high climate sensitivity and a recent increase of the net global climate forcing, not the result of an exceptional El Nino, per se. We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.

New year, new acronym! The newly established Intergovernmental Science-Policy Panel on Chemicals, Waste and Pollution (ISP-CWP) will meet in its first Plenary session from February 2-6 in Geneva, Switzerland. The Panel is designed to provide scientific assessments on chemicals, waste, and pollution to inform policymakers at national, regional, and international levels.

Testimony from medics, morgue and graveyard staff reveals huge state effort to conceal systematic killing of protesters

The decline in the health of nature around the world poses a threat to the UK's security and prosperity, an intelligence committee has concluded in a long-awaited report. The document warns of "cascading risks" from the degradation of some of the planet's most important ecosystems, including conflict, migration and increased competition for resources.

Legal action has brought important decisions, from the scrapping of fossil fuel plants to revised climate plans

I always say that models are not predictions; they are qualitative illustrations of what the future could be. But as the future gets closer to the present, models can start being seen as predictive tools. It is the weather/climate dichotomy, so aptly exploited to confuse matters by politically minded people in the discussion about climate. Right now, we are getting close to the point that we could forecast a collapse in the same way as we can forecast the trajectory of a tropical storm. So, you remember how “The Limits to Growth” generated a long term forecast in 1972. Here it is

A deal is welcome after talks nearly collapsed but the final agreement contains small steps rather than leaps

We propose a new paradigm, as toxicology currently lacks the proper perspective. From the 1950s to the 1970s, at least one-third of all toxicological testing in the United States, including for chemicals and drugs, was misleading scientists, and this worldwide issue persists today. Moreover, petroleum-based waste and heavy metals have been discovered in pesticide and plasticizer formulations. These contaminations have now reached all forms of life. Widespread exposure to chemical mixtures promotes health and environmental risks. We discovered that pesticides have never undergone long-term testing on mammals in their full commercial formulations by regulatory authorities or the pesticide industry; instead, only their declared active ingredients have been assessed, contrary to environmental law recommendations. The ingredients of these formulations are not fully disclosed, yet the formulations are in general at least 1000 times more toxic at low environmentally relevant doses than the active ingredients alone u

22 of the planet’s 34 vital signs are at record levels, with many of them continuing to trend sharply in the wrong direction. This is the message of the sixth issue of the annual “State of the climate” report. The report was prepared by an international coalition with contribution from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and led by Oregon State University scientists. Published today in BioScience, it cites global data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in proposing “high-impact” strategies.

The latest Lancet Countdown report warns that health impacts of climate change are worsening, with millions dying needlessly each year due to fossil fuel dependence, growing greenhouse gas emissions, and failure to adequately adapt. As some countries and companies rollback on climate commitments, local and grassroots leadership is building momentum for a healthier future.​ The report represents the work of 128 experts from 71 institutions, monitoring progress across 57 indicators – from heat-related deaths to bank lending to fossil fuels – providing the most comprehensive assessment yet of the links between climate change and health.

Ahead of the United Nations climate talks in Brazil, advocacy groups are pushing for companies and governments to set meaningful emissions targets to lower emissions from livestock.

A climate-focused report out of Europe throws serious shade at plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) cars, pointing out that they emit nearly as much carbon dioxide emissions as combustion engine-powered vehicles. In fact, it highlights how real-world emissions from supposedly greener PHEVs has increased over the years above officially recorded figures to nearly five times. Yikes! The findings come from the European Federation for Transport and Environment (T&E), a clutch of non-government organizations focused on sustainable transport policy across the continent. The report has been published ahead of a review of automotive CO2 emission standards, which would see Europe continue to sell plug-in hybrid electric vehicles beyond 2035, when they're set to be phased out in order to meet EU climate targets.

Collapse has historically benefited the 99%. […] That’s the amazing conclusion of Luke Kemp, author of Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse.  Luke is a research associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, and has spent the past five years studying the collapse of civilisations throughout history. He joins me to explain his research, detailing the difference between complex, collective civilisations and what he calls “Goliaths”, massive centralising forces by which a small group of individuals extract wealth from the rest through domination and the threat of violence. Today, he says, we live in a global Goliath.

It looked like snow under water: white, endless, and still. The reef, my friend Lisbeth said, was “the most beautiful thing she’d ever seen.” For a second, I almost agreed. Then, I stared at it for a long time before replying. She wasn’t wrong about its beauty. But she was also showing me death. Bleached coral isn’t a kind of coral. It’s the moment just after the funeral, what’s left when life is gone. A cathedral of bone-white skeletons stretching over an empire of calcified death. From above, it glows like marble. Up close, it’s a graveyard.

Unless global heating is reduced to 1.2C ‘as fast as possible’, warm water coral reefs will not remain ‘at any meaningful scale’, a report by 160 scientists from 23 countries warns

The Production Gap Report finds that 10 years after the Paris Agreement, governments plan to produce more than double the volume of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, steering the world further from the Paris goals than the last such assessment in 2023.

Much attention today focuses on uncertainties affecting the future evolution of oil and natural gas demand, with less consideration given to how the supply picture could develop. However, understanding decline rates – the annual rate at which production declines from existing oil and gas fields – is crucial for assessing the outlook for oil and gas supply and, by extension, for market balances. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has long examined this issue, and a detailed understanding of decline rates is at the heart of IEA modelling and analysis, underpinning the insights provided by the scenarios in the World Energy Outlook. This new report – based on analysis of the production records of around 15 000 oil and gas fields around the world – explores the implications of accelerating decline rates, growing reliance on unconventional resources, and evolving project development patterns for the global oil and gas supply landscape, for energy security and for investment. It also provides regional insights

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has described her plan to “maximise extraction” of the UK’s oil and gas from the North Sea as a “common sense” energy policy. Politicians are using language like this increasingly often – calling themselves “pragmatic” on climate change and invoking “common sense”. It sounds reasonable, reassuring, and grownup – the opposite of “hysterical” campaigners or “unrealistic” targets.

Purpose Animal emissions account for nearly 60% of total greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock sector. To estimate these emissions, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) developed a dedicated module within the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM). Although previous studies have explored selected inputs for specific animals and emission types, a comprehensive analysis of all 92 inputs (parameters and emission factors) had not been conducted. This study aimed to identify the most influential inputs affecting ruminant emissions in GLEAM.

The vast ice of Antarctica has long seemed impregnable. But sudden changes are arriving – from shrinking sea ice to melting ice sheets and slowing ocean currents.

Les autorités sanitaires européennes annoncent quatre malades en Belgique, au Danemark, aux Pays-Bas et en Norvège, en lien avec les fromages français infectés par la listeria.

The climate crisis has entered a decisive phase. Delaying climate measures increases the likelihood of crossing tipping points. Political shifts are weakening international cooperation when unity is vital. Yet, the Planetary Boundaries offer a path to a stable and sustainable future.

Identifying the socio-economic drivers behind greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to design mitigation policies. Existing studies predominantly analyze short-term CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, neglecting long-term trends and other GHGs. We examine the drivers of all greenhouse gas emissions between 1820–2050 globally and regionally. The Industrial Revolution triggered sustained emission growth worldwide—initially through fossil fuel use in industrialized economies but also as a result of agricultural expansion and deforestation. Globally, technological innovation and energy mix changes prevented 31 (17–42) Gt CO2e emissions over two centuries. Yet these gains were dwarfed by 81 (64–97) Gt CO2e resulting from economic expansion, with regional drivers diverging sharply: population growth dominated in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, while rising affluence was the main driver of emissions elsewhere. Meeting climate targets now requires the carbon intensity of GDP to decline 3 times faster than the global

In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15639576; Smith et al., 2025a) to produce updated estimates for key indicators of the state of the climate system: net emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. This year, we additionally include indicators for sea-level rise and land precipitation change. We follow methods as closely as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One report.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has encouraged a rapid increase in the deployment of drones that use fibre optic cables to protect them from being jammed or downed by electronic warfare: the drones trail kilometres of plastic cable across frontlines. In this post Leon Moreland explores the environmental risks posed by this new form of battlefield plastic pollution.

Depuis quelques jours, plusieurs médias et politiques s’émeuvent d’une prétendue «interdiction» du comté souhaitée par «les écologistes». Derrière la polémique, des associations et scientifiques s’inquiètent des dégâts environnementaux dont est en partie responsable la production de ce fromage, malgré les efforts de la filière pour y remédier.

The nation’s top banks are quietly advising their clients on how to build a financial life raft — or perhaps life yacht — from the wreckage of runaway climate change. Make no mistake: The forecasts coming from Wall Street’s leading financial institutions are bleak. But they also point their clients to potential profit-making opportunities from the havoc spreading across the planet, writes Corbin Hiar.

No one knows when the next alert or request to save a chunk of US government-held climate data will come in. Such data, long available online, keeps getting taken down by US President Donald Trump's administration. For the last six months or so, Cathy Richards has been entrenched in the response. She works for one of several organisations bent on downloading and archiving public data before it disappears.

While NGOs and Members of the European Parliament are calling for a ban on so-called "forever chemicals" in pesticides, only a few kilometres from Brussels, in Flanders, contamination is in full swing, even affecting organic farmers. PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) are chemicals used mainly for their water-repellent properties. Recent studies suggest that pesticide products may contain PFAS and that some active ingredients may meet the definition of a PFAS. This group of chemicals is a known threat to human health. Once in the environment, they are extremely persistent, earning them the nickname "forever chemicals".

Bayer, the corporation behind Roundup herbicide, has paid out nearly $11 billion in lawsuits. Trump’s EPA might move to block the suits.

Countries must move rapidly to slash CO2 emissions from homes, offices, shops and other buildings—a sector that accounts for a third of global greenhouse gas pollution, the United Nations said Monday. Carbon dioxide emissions from the building sector rose around 5% in the last decade when they should have fallen 28%, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).

The ocean ecosystem is a vital component of the global carbon cycle, storing enough carbon to keep atmospheric CO2 considerably lower than it would otherwise be. However, this conception is based on simple models, neglecting the coupled land-ocean feedback. Using an interactive Earth system model, we show that the role ocean biology plays in controlling atmospheric CO2 is more complex than previously thought. Atmospheric CO2 in a new equilibrium state after the biological pump is shut down increases by more than 50% (163 ppm), lower than expected as approximately half the carbon lost from the ocean is adsorbed by the land. The abiotic ocean is less capable of taking up anthropogenic carbon due to the warmer climate, an absent biological surface pCO2 deficit and a higher Revelle factor. Prioritizing research on and preserving marine ecosystem functioning would be crucial to mitigate climate change and the risks associated with it.

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is the world's strongest ocean current and plays a disproportionate role in the climate system due to its role as a conduit for major ocean basins. This current system is linked to the ocean's vertical overturning circulation, and is thus pivotal to the uptake of heat and CO2 in the ocean. The strength of the ACC has varied substantially across warm and cold climates in Earth's past, but the exact dynamical drivers of this change remain elusive. This is in part because ocean models have historically been unable to adequately resolve the small-scale processes that control current strength. Here, we assess a global ocean model simulation which resolves such processes to diagnose the impact of changing thermal, haline and wind conditions on the strength of the ACC. Our results show that, by 2050, the strength of the ACC declines by ∼20% for a high-emissions scenario. This decline is driven by meltwater from ice shelves around Antarctica, which is exported to lower latit

As of February 22, over twenty Stand Up for Science protests are scheduled for March 7 throughout the United States. The protests are being organized by fellow scientists who are concerned about the Trump administration’s feelings and actions towards science (see Robles-Gil, 2025 in Science), includ

The USDA has begun removing references to climate change on its webpages and sites, including the U.S. Forest Service website.

The directive follows President Trump's orders reversing climate policies.

he global economy could face 50% loss in gross domestic product (GDP) between 2070 and 2090 from the catastrophic shocks of climate change unless immediate action by political leaders is taken to decarbonise and restore nature, according to a new report The stark warning from risk management experts the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) hugely increases the estimate of risk to global economic wellbeing from climate change impacts such as fires, flooding, droughts, temperature rises and nature breakdown.

In this week’s Down To Earth newsletter: The global crackdown against climate activists and groups is clearly part of the fossil fuel industry’s strategy to crush dissent and keep burning the planet

This special report on land comes at a time when the scientific evidence is unambiguous: the way we manage our land will directly determine the future of life on Earth. The planetary boundaries framework, highlighted in this report, is a critical scientific tool to understand the complex interdependencies between land, climate, biodiversity and water, among other Earth system components, offering policymakers a focused lens through which to view the potential risks and rewards of different land-use decisions.

An MIT Energy Initiative study finds many climate-stabilization plans are based on questionable assumptions about the future cost and deployment of “direct air capture” and therefore may not bring about promised reductions.

Global warming has already caused the Arctic to release more climate-warming methane—but exactly how much will depend closely on the actions we take to halt climate change.

At least 1773 fossil fuel lobbyists have been granted access to the COP29 summit in Baku, underscoring an outsized polluter presence year after year at crucial climate talks, according to a new analysis from Corporate Europe Observatory, Corporate Accountability and Global Witness, from the Kick Big Polluters Out (KBPO) coalition.

Harry is a U.K.-based senior staff writer at Live Science. He studied marine biology at the University of Exeter before training to become a journalist. He covers a wide range of topics including space exploration, planetary science, space weather, climate change, animal behavior, evolution and paleontology. His feature on the upcoming solar maximum was shortlisted in the "top scoop" category at the National Council for the Training of Journalists (NCTJ) Awards for Excellence in 2023. 

Understanding how global mean surface temperature (GMST) has varied over the past half-billion years, a time in which evolutionary patterns of flora and fauna have had such an important influence on the evolution of climate, is essential for understanding the processes driving climate over that interval. Judd et al. present a record of GMST over the past 485 million years that they constructed by combining proxy data with climate modeling (see the Perspective by Mills). They found that GMST varied over a range from 11° to 36°C, with an “apparent” climate sensitivity of ∼8°C, about two to three times what it is today. —Jesse Smith

Some narratives in international development hold that ending poverty and achieving good lives for all will require every country to reach the levels of GDP per capita that currently characterise high-income countries. However, this would require increasing total global output and resource use several times over, dramatically exacerbating ecological breakdown. Furthermore, universal convergence along these lines is unlikely within the imperialist structure of the existing world economy. Here we demonstrate that this dilemma can be resolved with a different approach, rooted in recent needs-based analyses of poverty and development. Strategies for development should not pursue capitalist growth and increased aggregate production as such, but should rather increase the specific forms of production that are necessary to improve capabilities and meet human needs at a high standard, while ensuring universal access to key goods and services through public provisioning and decommodification. At the same time, in high

The signs of weakening resilience raise concerns that the world’s greatest tropical forest – and biggest terrestrial carbon sink – is degrading towards a point of no return. It follows four supposedly “one-in-a-century” dry spells in less than 20 years, highlighting how a human-disrupted climate is putting unusually intense strains on trees and other plants, many of which are dying of dehydration.

A town hit hard by two hurricanes, downpours and a deep freeze, all in the midst of a pandemic, offers crucial lessons for everyone’s disaster planning and recovery.

01 August 2024 – Humanity is facing its greatest emergency, a crisis consisting of many, interlinked, catastrophic risks, the Roundtable on the Human Future has declared. At present humanity has no way to deal with such a crisis – and a global plan of action is urgently needed, it said.

The economic damage wrought by climate change is six times worse than previously thought, with global heating set to shrink wealth at a rate consistent with the level of financial losses of a continuing permanent war, research has found. A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product (GDP), the researchers found, a far higher estimate than that of previous analyses.

Oil and gas equipment intended to cut methane emissions is preventing scientists from accurately detecting greenhouse gases and pollutants, a satellite image investigation has revealed. Energy companies operating in countries such as the US, UK, Germany and Norway appear to have installed technology that could stop researchers from identifying methane, carbon dioxide emissions and pollutants at industrial facilities involved in the disposal of unprofitable natural gas, known in the industry as flaring.

The sunlight bids farewell to the mountains. The clouds hang in a sky tinged with pink and purple. The birds fly in flocks, returning to their trees. We, too, are returning home after another afternoon spent in the communal lands